Once rare, inflammatory bowel disease is becoming Canada’s next major health challenge
Canada is facing a health crisis in the making, as the number of people living with inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) is expected to surge dramatically by 2045, according to a new global study published in Nature Portfolio which is co-led by Dr. Gilaad Kaplan from the University of Calgary and Professor Siew Ng from the Chinese University of Hong Kong.
The research spanned more than a century and analyzed data from over 500 population-based studies across 82 countries, and identified four distinct stages in the global evolution of IBD: Emergence, Acceleration, Compounding Prevalence, and Prevalence Equilibrium.
Surge in inflammatory bowel disease in Canada
Canada is currently in the third stage, i.e, Compounding Prevalence, characterized by a growing number of individuals living with IBD, particularly among seniors.
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In 2025, approximately 0.8% of Canadians are projected to be living with IBD, a figure expected to climb to 1% by the 2030s and 2040s.
By the 2030s, over 400,000 Canadians are anticipated to be living with IBD, up from an estimated 322,600 in 2023. This surge poses significant challenges for Canada's healthcare system, which must adapt to manage both new diagnoses and the aging population of IBD patients.
Dr. Kaplan emphasizes the dual challenge facing healthcare providers: managing new diagnoses in younger individuals while also addressing the needs of an aging IBD population.
“We’re managing new diagnoses in young individuals, but we’re also seeing an aging IBD population,” Kaplan explained. “People diagnosed with Crohn’s in their 30s in the 1990s will be in their 70s by the 2030s. That means we’ll have to manage IBD alongside age-related comorbidities like cardiovascular disease, cancer, and dementia.”
IBD typically starts between 20 and 40 years of age and can cause lifelong symptoms. The study says IBD was first recognized in the 19th century, and in the early 20th century, was considered “a rare disease among the descendants of Europeans who colonized North America and Oceania.”
Once considered a disease of the Western world, Kaplan said it’s now a truly global condition.
This shift is attributed to changes in diet, lifestyle, and environment associated with industrialization and urbanization, which affect the gut microbiome, a key factor in IBD development.
In response to these trends, Dr. Kaplan and Professor Ng advocate for a dual approach, prioritizing prevention by investigating environmental causes of IBD, such as diet, and innovating healthcare systems to provide accessible, equitable, and affordable care for all patients.
Kaplan adds that Canada’s leadership in IBD care and research is also an opportunity. “We’re seen as a guiding light globally,” Kaplan said. “Countries like those in Asia and Latin America are just now seeing a rise in IBD. We can learn from it, and it can give us clues to what is environmentally driving the disease, and change those things in practice in Canada.
While Canada is not yet at Stage 4, the study expects it to reach this point in the coming decades, if current trends hold.
FAQs
What is Inflammatory Bowel Disease (IBD)?
Inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) refers to a group of chronic conditions that cause inflammation in the digestive tract. The two most common types of IBD are Crohn’s disease and ulcerative colitis. These conditions can lead to symptoms that significantly affect a person's daily life and well-being.
What are the symptoms of IBD?
IBD symptoms include abdominal pain, diarrhea (sometimes with blood), rectal bleeding, weight loss, fatigue, loss of appetite, and sometimes fever. People with IBD may also experience an urgency to have bowel movements and anemia.
How is IBD treated?
There is no cure for IBD, but treatment focuses on managing symptoms and reducing inflammation. Medications like anti-inflammatory drugs, immunosuppressants, and biologics are commonly used. Dietary changes and surgery may be necessary in severe cases, and supportive care such as hydration and nutrition is often part of the treatment plan.
Can IBD lead to death?
While IBD itself is not typically fatal, it can cause severe complications like bowel perforations, abscesses, or infections. Long-term conditions like ulcerative colitis may also increase the risk of colon cancer. Proper treatment and management are essential to reducing risks and improving quality of life.
The research spanned more than a century and analyzed data from over 500 population-based studies across 82 countries, and identified four distinct stages in the global evolution of IBD: Emergence, Acceleration, Compounding Prevalence, and Prevalence Equilibrium.
Surge in inflammatory bowel disease in Canada
Canada is currently in the third stage, i.e, Compounding Prevalence, characterized by a growing number of individuals living with IBD, particularly among seniors.
(Join our ETNRI WhatsApp channel for all the latest updates)
In 2025, approximately 0.8% of Canadians are projected to be living with IBD, a figure expected to climb to 1% by the 2030s and 2040s.
By the 2030s, over 400,000 Canadians are anticipated to be living with IBD, up from an estimated 322,600 in 2023. This surge poses significant challenges for Canada's healthcare system, which must adapt to manage both new diagnoses and the aging population of IBD patients.
Dr. Kaplan emphasizes the dual challenge facing healthcare providers: managing new diagnoses in younger individuals while also addressing the needs of an aging IBD population.
“We’re managing new diagnoses in young individuals, but we’re also seeing an aging IBD population,” Kaplan explained. “People diagnosed with Crohn’s in their 30s in the 1990s will be in their 70s by the 2030s. That means we’ll have to manage IBD alongside age-related comorbidities like cardiovascular disease, cancer, and dementia.”
IBD typically starts between 20 and 40 years of age and can cause lifelong symptoms. The study says IBD was first recognized in the 19th century, and in the early 20th century, was considered “a rare disease among the descendants of Europeans who colonized North America and Oceania.”
Once considered a disease of the Western world, Kaplan said it’s now a truly global condition.
This shift is attributed to changes in diet, lifestyle, and environment associated with industrialization and urbanization, which affect the gut microbiome, a key factor in IBD development.
In response to these trends, Dr. Kaplan and Professor Ng advocate for a dual approach, prioritizing prevention by investigating environmental causes of IBD, such as diet, and innovating healthcare systems to provide accessible, equitable, and affordable care for all patients.
Kaplan adds that Canada’s leadership in IBD care and research is also an opportunity. “We’re seen as a guiding light globally,” Kaplan said. “Countries like those in Asia and Latin America are just now seeing a rise in IBD. We can learn from it, and it can give us clues to what is environmentally driving the disease, and change those things in practice in Canada.
While Canada is not yet at Stage 4, the study expects it to reach this point in the coming decades, if current trends hold.
FAQs
What is Inflammatory Bowel Disease (IBD)?
Inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) refers to a group of chronic conditions that cause inflammation in the digestive tract. The two most common types of IBD are Crohn’s disease and ulcerative colitis. These conditions can lead to symptoms that significantly affect a person's daily life and well-being.
What are the symptoms of IBD?
IBD symptoms include abdominal pain, diarrhea (sometimes with blood), rectal bleeding, weight loss, fatigue, loss of appetite, and sometimes fever. People with IBD may also experience an urgency to have bowel movements and anemia.
How is IBD treated?
There is no cure for IBD, but treatment focuses on managing symptoms and reducing inflammation. Medications like anti-inflammatory drugs, immunosuppressants, and biologics are commonly used. Dietary changes and surgery may be necessary in severe cases, and supportive care such as hydration and nutrition is often part of the treatment plan.
Can IBD lead to death?
While IBD itself is not typically fatal, it can cause severe complications like bowel perforations, abscesses, or infections. Long-term conditions like ulcerative colitis may also increase the risk of colon cancer. Proper treatment and management are essential to reducing risks and improving quality of life.
