The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) has said that the southwest monsoon may start between June 12 and 18. An IMD official said that a system may form in the Bay of Bengal on June 12-13. However, there are still some uncertainties due to different models. The official said that some models are talking about the formation of a system, while some are not.
The IMD expects good rains in Central India, parts of Maharashtra and South Peninsular India (where the monsoon has already arrived) after the resumption of monsoon. The IMD says that the distribution of rain is very important for the progress of the monsoon. This forecast has brought a ray of hope for the areas facing drought due to the sluggish progress of monsoon.
According to the IMD official, widespread to very widespread rains with heavy rains at isolated places are likely over many parts of South Peninsular and adjoining Central India due to strengthening of westerly winds and the possibility of formation of an off-shore trough over the west coast.
What does Skymet agency say?
However, private weather forecasting agency Skymet Weather Services has predicted a higher possibility of formation of a monsoon system in the Bay of Bengal. Skymet Chairman G. P. Sharma said that an anterior cyclonic circulation is expected to develop over west-central Bay of Bengal by June 10.
It will take another 48 hours to re-organize and strengthen. According to Sharma, this system is likely to start meteorological activities along the coastline from June 11. This weather system may move slightly south of its normal route, which will pass through Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Karnataka and Maharashtra. Skymet has predicted that the monsoon revival period will last from June 12 to 17, covering most parts of South Peninsular India.
