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Middle East is teetering on the edge of a full-scale war fraught with global implications as Iran and Israel cross a dangerous line

As the two arch-rivals in the Middle East — Israel and Iran — cross the dangerous threshold and intensify missile attacks on each other, the region is teetering on the edge of a full-scale war fraught with global implications. The escalation was triggered by a series of attacks by Israel in an operation code-named ‘Rising Lion’, killing top military generals, senior scientists and targeting Iran’s key nuclear and defence facilities. In an aggressive response, Iranian missiles successfully breached Israel’s famed Iron Dome and hit targets in the heart of Tel Aviv. The wave of mutual strikes could redraw the strategic landscape of the volatile region. What is more alarming is that the theatre of conflict could soon expand, dragging the United States into the muddle. In the event of America becoming an active combatant, the consequences could be disastrous not only for the Middle East but for the rest of the world. Tehran has already warned the US, the UK and France that it would hit their interests in the region — such as military bases and diplomatic missions — if they extend military help to Israel. If, in the ongoing conflict, Iran fails to inflict sufficient damage on Israel’s well-protected military and other targets, then it could always aim its missiles at softer targets in the Gulf, especially the countries that Tehran believes aided and abetted its enemies over the years. The instability in the region could pose deeper macroeconomic challenges for India, extending beyond trade, particularly as the country’s reliance on oil imports continues to rise.

Iran’s rulers have pledged to destroy Israel and have long supported regional militias who share that goal. Iran’s proxy militia — Hamas and Hezbollah — could also become more active in the days ahead. It must be pointed out that Iran was accused of engineering attacks, through its proxy militia, on Saudi Arabia’s oil fields in 2019 and some targets in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) in 2022. The Arab world is divided over whom to support in the conflict. Iran could find allies in Syria, Lebanon, Kuwait and Iraq. On the other hand, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and UAE are united against Iran, with support from the US. Many Arab countries have normalised diplomatic ties with Israel in pursuit of regional security against the Iranian government’s military and political ambitions, effectively breaking from the long-running Arab League boycott of Israel. The current escalation comes at a time when the talks between the US and Iran on a deal over Tehran’s nuclear programme were about to enter their sixth round, though there was widespread scepticism over its outcome. Israel has repeatedly said Iran poses an existential threat for its survival because of its clandestine nuclear programme. Iran has repeatedly denied building nuclear weapons but many Western countries are not convinced. Last week, the United Nations nuclear watchdog found Iran in breach of its non-proliferation obligations.