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With less than two weeks left until the July 9 deadline, India and the United States are under mounting pressure to finalise their long-pending Bilateral Trade Agreement (BTA). The urgency stems from the approaching end of the 90-day tariff pause, after which earlier tariff levels could automatically be reinstated.

According to an ANI report citing officials familiar with the discussions, both sides have ramped up negotiations to reach an interim pact. However, progress remains slow due to fundamental disagreements, most notably around the US demands for broader access to Indian markets for agricultural goods and genetically modified (GMO) crops.

Indian negotiators have made it clear that they will not compromise on issues related to food sovereignty, environmental risks, and the interests of domestic farmers, as per the report.

“India is unwilling to compromise on GMO crops or provide broad-based access for US agricultural and dairy products,” a senior government source stated in the report. “Our position remains clear that any agreement must serve India's strategic and economic interests first.”

The US has repeatedly pushed for reduced tariffs on American produce, seeing India’s vast consumer base as a critical market for its farming exports. However, New Delhi fears such concessions could disrupt the domestic agricultural ecosystem.

Tariff Snapback Looms

The tariff suspension currently in place was initiated 90 days ago to provide a window for smooth dialogue. If a deal is not inked by July 9, the pre-April 2 tariff structure will automatically be reinstated, raising the possibility of renewed trade tensions between the two economies.

Despite the high stakes, Indian officials believe the country could retain a strategic edge even in the event of a tariff rollback. “India would still remain competitively placed compared to other manufacturing economies,” one official noted in the report.

Potential Ramifications For Bilateral Relations

Trade experts warn that failure to finalise a deal could have ripple effects on broader Indo-US relations, particularly as the two nations seek to deepen economic and strategic ties amid a changing global trade landscape.

Still, negotiators are pushing for a resolution. Government sources in the report indicate a cautious optimism that a compromise might be achieved, one that upholds India’s core concerns while addressing US trade expectations.